![]() ![]() News reports from around the world confirm the pattern of general decline (see compiled Associated Press article by Danzio et al. A project organized by Shayegh and Malpede ( 2020) is gathering daily crime reports in major European cities, however, these findings are not yet published. Dodd ( 2020) reported major declines in the UK, while Dutch news reported a 46% drop in burglary, 43% decline in bike thefts, and a 74% drop in pickpocketing (Dutch News 2020). ![]() News reports from other developed nations also indicate major declines. These news reports are not by any means limited to the United States. Detroit crime statistics in the shadow of the pandemic have been limited, however a New York Times article (Eligon and MacFarquhar 2020) related that arrests from March 24 to April 14, 2020, were half as numerous as in the same period of 2019. However, burglary data indicated declines for Austin, Los Angeles, Memphis, and San Francisco, but not for Boston or Louisville. Full analysis was not complete for all of these cities. ![]() Ashby ( 2020) gathered data from eight large cities in the United States: Austin, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, Louisville, Memphis, Nashville, and Los Angeles. The largest academic compilation on American cities comes from a British source. That study also found a 50% crime decline in Oakland, California. Declines were plotted day by day for the first 3 months of 2020, showing dramatic downturns in crime during the month of March, including thefts, weapons possession, homicide, domestic violence, traffic and sidewalk crimes, and (to a lesser degree) sex offenses. A multivariate analysis of crime changes in San Francisco (Shayegh and Malpede 2020) found a 43% decline in San Francisco neighborhoods. Several specific index crimes declined notably in these cities. An academic compilation by McDonald and Balkin ( 2020) of crime in five major North American cities added evidence of major crime declines in Chicago, San Francisco and Philadelphia. However, they did not observe significant declines for stolen vehicles, burglaries, assault with a deadly weapon, or intimate partner violence. ( 2020) adds to the evidence of a major overall crime drop in Los Angeles, especially for robbery, shoplifting, theft, and battery. Indications of dramatic declines in crime in the United States emerged in news reports about New York (Jacobs and Barrett 2020), Los Angeles (Poston 2020) and St. Before doing so, we review available evidence from other cities. The empirical task of the current research is to compare burglary changes in different zones of Detroit in response to the pandemic changes in routine activities. However, news reports were supplemented by compilations and a few academic articles or drafts. These reports derived mostly from police data, as reported in news sources. Supplementary evidence soon indicated that some types of crime were increasing in major ways, in contrast to the general reduction. Soon after these routine activities changed, a variety of evidence began to emerge indicating dramatic decreases in crime (reviewed below). ![]() The Covid-19 epidemic shifted routine activities by moving owners and customers away from business locations, leaving them highly vulnerable to burglary and trespassing. For example, when youths are located near businesses whose owners and customers are absent, those businesses become excellent targets for crime. Crime is most likely to occur when likely offenders converge in space and time with suitable crime targets in the absence of capable guardians against crime. Routine activity theory tells us that crime can be interpreted in terms of exposure to risk. Non-essential businesses were closed, and many other businesses experienced substantial declines in the number of customers, while forced to deal with remaining customers on a reduced-contact basis. These policies led to quick transformations in routine activities, with many people staying at home, children out of school, and entertainment districts emptied. In response to this pandemic, a range of containment policies have emerged in many nations (Wilder-Smith and Freedman 2020). Although the Chinese government did not respond immediately, they soon imposed a massive lockdown policy to limit the spread of the virus (Fang et al. The outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic began in China in late 2019 (Chen and Li 2020), then spread to the United States and other nations (Holshue et al. ![]()
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